Oil rises on positive demand outlook and US pipeline headache

Oil prices today are experiencing a lift on positive demand outlooks released by OPEC and IEA, which both came out with a similar consensus that oil demand will average 96.4 million bpd in 2021, a bullish tune for traders who have pushed Brent front-month contracts towards $69 per barrel. The IEA, in particular, warned that demand will outpace supply, a risk that Rystad Energy also sees as a real possibility, especially as vaccination campaigns allow for more sustained economic reopenings. However, given the demand dent in India as well as the potential impact of the Colonial closing on US refinery runs, we believe 2021 oil demand will likely average 94.6 million bpd.